I was thinking about the nature of confidence. Confidence is two things, I think: (1) the belief that something is present-tense real; (2) the belief that something can be future-tense real.
Either way, there seems to be another split: (1) belief; and (2) reality. You don't need either one for the other, but having (1) makes (2) a lot easier.
I've been listening to Pixies a lot the last two weeks. Basically nonstop. I'm not a Big Fan of theirs—for me they were basically just "Where Is My Mind?" I listened to that song on repeat for... months during the Year of Our Virus 2020, as I got accustomed to (was losing my mind to) life within the same four walls. I have no insight into their influence or catalog or anything. It's been fun to discover it. It's been surprising to discover music from the 1980s that could be—to me at least, who is at best a decade out of touch with music—music from today.
Anyway, I can't paint a whole picture. I don't know it. I'm interested but not interested—there aren't many stories about interesting 20-year-olds that I can stomach nowadays, which isn't anyone else's fault but mine. I can just say after reading various articles recently that there's an aspect about them—a few, really—that I can feel personally. There's their comfort with being misfits. There is this mix of assuredness and doubt that resonates with me.
Laura Barton. "Laura Barton talks to 1980s mavericks the Pixies". The Guardian (2005-08-20):
We were like, we want to go to England. We want to go to LA. We want to be real. We want to be on the radar. We were touring out of state well before there was any demand for us to be there.
Even if you don't fit in right, you've got to believe that there's something In There—how else are you going to keep pushing into headwinds? Or no winds at all—no resistance, nothing pushing you, nothing. Confidence is the belief in a Now, but also a belief in a capacity for a Future—not a certainty of a future, but a possibility.